NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e66f00ce5d0b6a8c699001cd8bd3d36c12061332c2dd94b69de5b3a67dc27dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bulls, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Bulls | 53c | 7,531$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 49c | 3,413$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 46c | 3,116$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pacers | 54c | 2,257$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.16 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bulls | 48c | 1,237$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.95 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Pacers | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Bulls | 47c | 813.83$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 48c | 247.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 52c | 218$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bulls | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Bulls | 48c | 188.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers | 55c | 185.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…435cbacked Pacers | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Pacers | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Bulls | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pacers | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked Bulls | 48c | 98.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 46c | 97.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…8937backed Bulls | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…ff5bbacked Bulls | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Pacers | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Pacers | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Pacers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Bulls | 47c | 49.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 46c | 46.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Pacers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pacers | 52c | 43.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…f5c4backed Pacers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bulls | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Pacers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Pacers | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Pacers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. BullsPacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.