NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9ff6850556c4ff2ce2c412dce0244aa2e166d561b8a6e0e7f508919ef99fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bulls, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 48c | 790.33$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.97 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Bulls | 53c | 484.3$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 48c | 427.15$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pacers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Bulls | 51c | 306.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 47c | 236.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pacers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 48c | 173.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…4134backed Pacers | 51c | 149.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bulls | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…48c1backed Pacers | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Pacers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pacers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Pacers | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Pacers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Bulls | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Pacers | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Pacers | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…1ae8backed Bulls | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. BullsPacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.