NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05edf8862ba8b79235f52978c9646a91095f928f419d753f56d56712b606b9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,548$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 56c | 4,570$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.95 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 3,969$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 52c | 2,280$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.54 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 54c | 2,043$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.46 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…9d8fbacked Under | 51c | 1,804$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 49c | 1,162$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.18 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Over | 49c | 642.86$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 466$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 54c | 391$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Over | 52c | 173.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 46c | 168.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 141$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…1ae8backed Over | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. BullsPacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.