MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Dominican Rep.
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e84813a33ea1f4d857e0caaae04abd01f40446580e215bfd9e273940dcaccf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dominican Rep.of Israel, Dominican Rep.
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Israel | 4c | 40,795$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.91 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Israel | 5c | 21,496$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.87 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…a99fbacked Israel | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Israel | 5c | 3,302$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Israel | 2c | 2,337$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Israel | 5c | 1,909$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…b751backed Israel | 5c | 1,862$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Israel | 4c | 1,705$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Israel | 6c | 1,436$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Israel | 3c | 1,256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…eaf1backed Israel | 5c | 1,167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Israel | 5c | 1,132$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Israel | 4c | 1,115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Israel | 5c | 1,098$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Israel | 4c | 1,084$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Israel | 6c | 993.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Israel | 5c | 946.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Israel | 3c | 895.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Israel | 4c | 749.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Israel | 2c | 650.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Israel | 5c | 611.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +201%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Israel | 6c | 559.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Israel | 4c | 530$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Israel | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Israel | 5c | 471.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Israel | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Israel | 5c | 300.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Israel | 5c | 260.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Israel | 6c | 182.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Israel | 6c | 176.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.