MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb5de3a4fcb1bd817ac7d85e0be563e2504fa2f2fc1f6a8448d5307c160f28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 44c | 1,072$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.34 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 55c | 871.06$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.08 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 758.53$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.36 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 2c | 690$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 56c | 619.73$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 45c | 483.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 374.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 318.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 45c | 236.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Under | 27c | 212.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 210.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 58c | 176.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 176.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 46c | 148.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 52c | 144.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 54c | 141.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 122.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 75c | 122.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 113.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 106.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 78c | 101.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 99.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Over | 35c | 67.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 17c | 65.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 64.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Under | 72c | 62.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 19c | 52.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 50.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 45.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 50c | 41.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 56c | 32.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.