Lol · resolved market
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb72ef5e1cdd7412b8275e38ce027f65bd3b485dda06d76620876345a79bf70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnebof L Guide Gaming, Arneb
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Arneb | 63c | 2,328$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.8 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed L Guide Gaming | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed L Guide Gaming | 41c | 1,227$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.21 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Arneb | 65c | 1,154$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.7 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Arneb | 64c | 1,126$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.95 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Arneb | 65c | 1,113$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.27 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…b7aabacked Arneb | 60c | 1,066$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.23 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked Arneb | 54c | 884.24$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked L Guide Gaming | 33c | 874.87$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…ca21backed L Guide Gaming | 37c | 739.37$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Arneb | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed L Guide Gaming | 38c | 610.25$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.51 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1db2backed L Guide Gaming | 36c | 588.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -16.9wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Arneb | 67c | 570.09$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.13 | 594 | 50.2%298 W · 296 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed L Guide Gaming | 36c | 562.81$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Arneb | 71c | 560.85$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Arneb | 59c | 549.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed L Guide Gaming | 40c | 506.43$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed L Guide Gaming | 34c | 489.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…9ed6backed Arneb | 68c | 439.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked L Guide Gaming | 35c | 430$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 201 | 54.7%110 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Arneb | 64c | 385.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…aeb1backed L Guide Gaming | 33c | 356.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed L Guide Gaming | 38c | 325.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 438 | 39.7%174 W · 264 L | -24.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked L Guide Gaming | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…25c3backed L Guide Gaming | 48c | 283.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed L Guide Gaming | 25c | 257.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 86 | 18.6%16 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed L Guide Gaming | 38c | 239.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked L Guide Gaming | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6665…a37cbacked L Guide Gaming | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked L Guide Gaming | 35c | 157.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed L Guide Gaming | 35c | 153.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed L Guide Gaming | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 545 | 29.7%162 W · 383 L | -34.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed L Guide Gaming | 34c | 119.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Arneb | 65c | 111.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked L Guide Gaming | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…a60ebacked L Guide Gaming | 38c | 105.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…72d2backed L Guide Gaming | 35c | 105.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Arneb | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Arneb | 65c | 88.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked L Guide Gaming | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 602 | 43.4%261 W · 341 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…23d4backed L Guide Gaming | 45c | 71.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed L Guide Gaming | 35c | 70.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 376 | 50%188 W · 188 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Arneb | 66c | 60.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed L Guide Gaming | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked L Guide Gaming | 32c | 48.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7b…b6bfbacked L Guide Gaming | 40c | 47.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…73d1backed Arneb | 59c | 39.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked L Guide Gaming | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arneb | 61c | 34.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Arneb | 66c | 33.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 320 | 53.8%172 W · 148 L | +21.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed L Guide Gaming | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 41.4%103 W · 146 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…8f7abacked Arneb | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…f937backed L Guide Gaming | 39c | 27.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…e5dfbacked L Guide Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 23.5%24 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Arneb | 67c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Arneb | 62c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…8bc8backed Arneb | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Arneb | 64c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Seasonthis page
- Game Handicap: ARB (-1.5) vs L Guide Gaming (+1.5)Arneb won
- LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb - Game 1 WinnerArneb won
- LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb - Game 2 WinnerArneb won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.