Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ebadcd451d49bdd02c2885d46e870ee578e1a1a7e6ad4d90d304d40aed0fbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 671.75$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 518.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 284.02$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 207.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 163.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 152.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 119.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 105.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 92.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 89.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 36c | 88.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 78.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 76.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 75.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 67.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d77…2975backed Yes | 30c | 67.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 63.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 24c | 61.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 54.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 36c | 34.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.