Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9121b414a05ab9f8e579a5c8cf66a49ac6de608f575003a10037569a02238b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 49c | 615.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.96 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 340.27$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 62c | 319.13$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 195.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…b5b2backed Yes | 29c | 170.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 50c | 151.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 144.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 129.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 120.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 53c | 114.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 72c | 104.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 101.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 100.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 51c | 83.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 82.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 82.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 79.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 76.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 73.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 48c | 60.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 57.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 55.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 55.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 54.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 37c | 52.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 47.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 44.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 37.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 36.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 29c | 34.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 24.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.