Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Natus Vincere vs. GIANTX
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec62faa7efcedd0cc1ea007638527677618ec1a479ed81a9f9c4e2861940486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GIANTXof Natus Vincere, GIANTX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 17,929$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.9 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…58b2backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 12,260$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.27 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 5,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 635 | 46.6%296 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 3,902$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.4 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere | 6c | 3,385$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed GIANTX | 75c | 2,401$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.37 | 505 | 69.9%353 W · 152 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed GIANTX | 80c | 700$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 687.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed GIANTX | 79c | 605.97$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 535$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 494.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 433 | 48.7%211 W · 222 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 271.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed GIANTX | 80c | 271.72$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed GIANTX | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Natus Vincere | 19c | 194.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked GIANTX | 79c | 176.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…4e87backed GIANTX | 77c | 68.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 62.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…43d0backed GIANTX | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed GIANTX | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.