CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef9dfc4932b70e93e6cb66548917f5d98215a2fcff907b4c9dbc08753f2b72e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof Eternal Fire, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Eternal Fire | 57c | 2,153$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.55 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…2d47backed ASTRAL | 28c | 1,186$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked ASTRAL | 48c | 953$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.44 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked Eternal Fire | 58c | 792.07$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.67 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL | 42c | 663.82$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.8 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Eternal Fire | 56c | 588.28$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Eternal Fire | 65c | 581.65$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 42c | 434.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…20e9backed Eternal Fire | 75c | 413.44$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ASTRAL | 42c | 405$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…5ad4backed ASTRAL | 56c | 344.69$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed ASTRAL | 32c | 316.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Eternal Fire | 72c | 258.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Eternal Fire | 58c | 243.44$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked ASTRAL | 41c | 234$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed ASTRAL | 46c | 231$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ASTRAL | 51c | 228.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked ASTRAL | 39c | 194.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 58c | 182.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Eternal Fire | 56c | 178.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed ASTRAL | 38c | 146.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Eternal Fire | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Eternal Fire | 58c | 112.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…a9f7backed Eternal Fire | 57c | 87.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked ASTRAL | 52c | 86.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked ASTRAL | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | -32.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…436cbacked Eternal Fire | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ASTRAL | 44c | 64.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Eternal Fire | 74c | 59.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 286 | 57.7%165 W · 121 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Eternal Fire | 50c | 49.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked ASTRAL | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Eternal Fire | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed ASTRAL | 42c | 35.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ASTRAL | 42c | 31.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Eternal Fire | 60c | 30.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed ASTRAL | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed ASTRAL | 55c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…2513backed Eternal Fire | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group StageEternal Fire won
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.