MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f0aa68ebd3757bfb72271872f92c232863f6f117cfe18ee480c5abeec82e316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 8,017$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,918.67 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 6,426$4,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,755.23 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 2,033$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 1,700$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 907.14$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.43 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 817.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.47 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 407.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 190.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Seattle Mariners | 73c | 124$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 115.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 91.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 37.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Seattle Mariners | 72c | 32.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…f206backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 22.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46d…54c2backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…8816backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 20.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…4608backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 17.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…9481backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…3f8ebacked Seattle Mariners | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.