Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f2f7b5fcae04eb7bd26985341cef32c35e68311ec4465f365fbbec6848dbbbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 2,704$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.26 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 2c | 2,207$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 30c | 2,137$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.61 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 1,694$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9ea1backed Yes | 29c | 1,609$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…0530backed No | 71c | 1,606$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 6c | 1,288$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 6c | 1,197$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 28c | 1,040$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 973.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 518.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 447.41$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 72c | 433.21$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Yes | 29c | 243.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 28c | 233.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 154.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 109.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 27c | 96.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…c9c4backed Yes | 28c | 47.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…9ee8backed Yes | 30c | 47.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 46.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 26c | 39.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 72c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.