Fifa International · resolved market
Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f659bd86c3fbd586b00ed1005fd3d29c6a18fdf53959c7098ed3b8b77ea82ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 63c | 1,119$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 851.42$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.75 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 78c | 400$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 372.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 20c | 209.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.43 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 60c | 82.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…b80ebacked Under | 30c | 34.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Under | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…7933backed Under | 47c | 24.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5this page
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.