Fifa International · resolved market
Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb737789f15d80a293708ec87ac3f0eac95d23774ebe305ce15ae21a6a1e60b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 1,156$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.26 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 28c | 455.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Over | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 176 | 64.8%114 W · 62 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Over | 69c | 289.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Over | 76c | 263.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…837cbacked Under | 27c | 188.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 71c | 157$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Under | 29c | 149.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Over | 71c | 140.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 69c | 139.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 77c | 110.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 22c | 100.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 96.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…0ab3backed Over | 71c | 90.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Under | 32c | 67.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 68c | 67.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 74c | 63.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…c854backed Over | 73c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 69c | 34.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 77c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5this page
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Over won
- Uganda vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.