Fifa International · resolved market
Will USA beat Mexico?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f6fd81bb822de267fafe7ced72d3bfd651bc84912f0fd1d7763b8ce2a494389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 2,152$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.65 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…f1f8backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 70c | 1,087$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 28c | 912$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 37c | 750$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 47c | 571$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.63 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 21c | 502.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 38c | 399.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 64c | 286.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed No | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 30c | 93.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 70c | 60.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed No | 78c | 47.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…1a13backed Yes | 57c | 38.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 70c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA beat Mexico? this page
- Will Mexico beat USA? Yes won
- Will USA vs. Mexico end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.