Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico beat USA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac5464a3ff74380351fa227a20ada95cccca15f4f6632cf05d345ad2cf5d268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 60c | 12,077$7,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,288.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 40c | 10,471$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,282.66 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed No | 65c | 4,101$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.76 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 37c | 2,844$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.97 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…9cafbacked Yes | 44c | 2,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 37c | 1,200$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 62c | 1,179$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.05 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 920$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked No | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked Yes | 38c | 526$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 60c | 511$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…f1f8backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 57c | 298$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 38c | 245.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 40c | 209.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…4958backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…f8c4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 97.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 42c | 70.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Yes | 39c | 66.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…9719backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 40c | 37.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Yes | 39c | 26.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…ac6bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 61c | 16.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico beat USA? this page
- Will USA beat Mexico? No won
- Will USA vs. Mexico end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.