Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f890d266aaa2482dc801f659e5ce2f44bbb3d6f55e6e5c3fb509de9c7fc356f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, eSuba
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed NightBirds | 78c | 17,432$13,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.78 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked eSuba | 22c | 13,333$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,933.26 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked eSuba | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed eSuba | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed eSuba | 21c | 1,431$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.54 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked NightBirds | 79c | 1,141$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked eSuba | 16c | 710$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…d34abacked NightBirds | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked NightBirds | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked eSuba | 18c | 525.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked eSuba | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 201 | 54.7%110 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed eSuba | 20c | 470.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked eSuba | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed eSuba | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed eSuba | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34d…26d5backed eSuba | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed eSuba | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed NightBirds | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NightBirds | 70c | 99.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked NightBirds | 79c | 83.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed eSuba | 21c | 57.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed eSuba | 20c | 51.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 375 | 48%180 W · 195 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed NightBirds | 79c | 51.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed NightBirds | 78c | 51.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 94 | 61.7%58 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed NightBirds | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed NightBirds | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed NightBirds | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked NightBirds | 80c | 24.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…e11bbacked NightBirds | 80c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…e6e6backed NightBirds | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs eSuba (+1.5)NightBirds won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular SeasonNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.