Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f909124ad5ca7b69eb499d6c3b9c36a382169ddd3190e1817ec5ef0bb602e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,236 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd59e…75adbacked Yes | 0c | 7,475$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,543$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 756$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 37c | 744.05$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.03 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 2c | 722.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 480.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 424.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 6c | 414.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 412.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 320.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 12c | 285.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 10c | 249.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 247.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 247.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 6c | 231.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes | 10c | 202.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 194.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 183.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 29c | 167.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 8c | 149.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 11c | 129.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 19c | 128.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 59c | 126.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 46c | 115.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 41c | 80.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 64c | 52.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 45c | 28.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a74…575dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.