Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780d24b76d511377846f3c48516275325d903b6c64e0fa6a8cc655f667e39e26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 1,529$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.74 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 38c | 885.74$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.31 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 760.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed No | 73c | 704.43$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 694.94$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 442.22$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…abf3backed No | 72c | 400$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 365.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 70c | 352.68$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 43c | 351.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 50c | 280.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 273.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 44c | 248.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed No | 70c | 239.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 220$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 46c | 209.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 180.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked No | 54c | 172.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 78c | 171.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 169.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 149.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 22c | 148.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 148$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 18c | 147.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 78c | 145.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 143.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 33c | 139.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 51c | 129.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…06e7backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 114.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 113.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 36c | 111.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 102.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7e88backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…9541backed No | 58c | 98.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 93.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 35c | 92.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 30c | 89.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 88.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 71c | 85.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 84.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 24c | 82.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…4997backed Yes | 42c | 73.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 72.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 53c | 66.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 36c | 65.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 30c | 65.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 62.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 41c | 60.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 50c | 57.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 51.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…7479backed Yes | 36c | 50.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +362.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 50.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 27c | 49.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 46.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…19a7backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…1927backed No | 66c | 45.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…37c5backed Yes | 34c | 44.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 35c | 41.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 25c | 40.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…bfa0backed No | 71c | 39.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 28c | 37.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…6efbbacked Yes | 32c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…1fb0backed No | 66c | 34.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 71c | 33.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…5d1abacked No | 70c | 33.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…6f0dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 47c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85e6…6940backed Yes | 39c | 30.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…9df3backed Yes | 34c | 30.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 54c | 30.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…6941backed Yes | 47c | 28.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 27.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…80cdbacked No | 70c | 27.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 42c | 26.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.