Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b5ca0eaec72201be01be552486e5de5ea071abd713abb88c8bbe2ff5c17029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,553 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 1,546$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 37c | 915.41$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.89 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 710.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 692.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 646.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 644.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…e913backed Yes | 28c | 625.61$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 55c | 577.77$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 72c | 563.21$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.94 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 390.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 12c | 382.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 34c | 300.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 299.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 259.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 255.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 22c | 226.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 198.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 197.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 196.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 14c | 187.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 72c | 180.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 62c | 160.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed No | 72c | 157.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 15c | 144.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 11c | 132.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 129.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 128.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 128.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…de69backed Yes | 35c | 116$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 72c | 103.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 38c | 99.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 98.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 15c | 78.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 64c | 76.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 40c | 76.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…c94fbacked Yes | 41c | 69.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 68.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 62.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 25c | 58.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 55.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 47.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 41c | 46.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 76c | 40.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 37c | 40.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…f59fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 80c | 32.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 31.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 31.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 66c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa92f…58b4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…80cdbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.