Fifa International · resolved market
Will Finland vs. Lithuania end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faa4f33f4b5ae0d34b7361e1bee855887dfaf3172d5cc9c6bec24117e4ca213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 4,640$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.6 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 4,299$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.86 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 3,584$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.67 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 76c | 2,999$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 77c | 1,859$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 1,850$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.08 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,281$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.75 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 26c | 984.53$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 75c | 838.22$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 23c | 780$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 27c | 738.66$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 12c | 225.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 11c | 187.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…ea40backed Yes | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…0e38backed No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 102.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c9d9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 97.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…1308backed No | 77c | 62.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 39c | 54.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 77c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efd…e769backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 76c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Finland vs. Lithuania end in a draw?this page
- Will Finland win on 2025-10-09?Yes won
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.