Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4d397d0ee7eff07014ef71ef7bc56e3a6981bfdceee726f48d1f76a4787a1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a4…d079backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 12c | 4,940$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.77 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 12c | 3,999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.9 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,420$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.45 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 39c | 3,305$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.63 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 2,050$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,572$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,118$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 12c | 1,060$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 12c | 1,020$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 13c | 1,008$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 878.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 13c | 650.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…f6fabacked Yes | 37c | 500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 19c | 494.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 75c | 454$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 12c | 421.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 14c | 364.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 12c | 354.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 12c | 335.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 12c | 321.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 13c | 199$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 13c | 196.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 13c | 168.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 38c | 155.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked Yes | 42c | 125.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…59ecbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 227 | 49.3%112 W · 115 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…18c4backed Yes | 43c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 42c | 25.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 59c | 25.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0a6dbacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09?this page
- Will Finland vs. Lithuania end in a draw?No won
- Will Finland win on 2025-10-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.