South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fdd027e48a52504d9129e62967dbfcbd1ffb657912bc12be98d70d5b4755470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,710 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 59c | 24,462$14,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,029.71 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.97 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 5,898$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 41c | 5,700$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 1,455$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.55 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 41c | 971$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.11 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 58c | 634.29$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.78 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 40c | 596$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.19 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -7.4wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 41c | 470.37$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 337.26$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 24c | 330.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 58c | 301.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 41c | 274$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 41c | 273$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 37c | 269.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 41c | 225.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 41c | 175.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 43c | 169.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 99.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 41c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 41c | 79.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 64.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 52.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 40c | 52.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…88c4backed Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 34c | 29.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)SC Corinthians Paulista won
- Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.