Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Polissia vs. FC København: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe0bcd868590c39a470656fd951e3148bc5285bdfa2998f83758e1e61959f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 53c | 5,785$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.74 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 2,080$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.21 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,883$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.11 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…43f7backed Under | 60c | 1,653$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 54c | 1,520$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.85 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 941.03$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.28 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 497.96$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Under | 52c | 488.38$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 16c | 475$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 59c | 338.42$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 53c | 304.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…2032backed Under | 53c | 96.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 84.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 49c | 70.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 38.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 35.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 34.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: O/U 4.5this page
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: FC København O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Polissia vs. FC København: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: FC København (-1.5)FK Polissia won
- Spread: FC København (-2.5)FK Polissia won
- Spread: FK Polissia (-1.5)FC København won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.