Us Politics · resolved market
More border encounters in March vs. Feb?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9019c7a214887000c8aeea44129afb2c792bd21b7492ef2ad958dfa5af3a2865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Yes | 43c | 7,154$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 69c | 6,096$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…df21backed No | 74c | 2,518$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed No | 12c | 1,393$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…9256backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 16c | 601.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.13 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 14c | 554.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.37 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 10c | 373.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1a49backed Yes | 80c | 250.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…e7e2backed No | 75c | 52.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes | 67c | 15.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.