Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9027805157cd0d6532058b8727b06212aca93b0ee4fdf70f3132a285c1a62e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,022$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 802.07$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 19c | 571.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 496.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 69c | 389.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 387$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 291.94$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 226.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 223.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 29c | 198.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 174.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 155.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 71c | 140.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 26c | 117.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 31c | 99.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 93.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 88.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 71.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 59.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 46.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…1656backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 41.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 27c | 37.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…1d6dbacked No | 72c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 34c | 29.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…2bfabacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.