Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed84b55c518a5ed340ba3def35fddfe46bcd4b1dcfc16141ce07b4bdf97023c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 40c | 1,409$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.87 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 62c | 417.82$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 261.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 37c | 247.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 200.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 157.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 139.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 73c | 138.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 136.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 54c | 132$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 68c | 98.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 179 | 55.9%100 W · 79 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 47c | 85.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 78.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 78.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 24c | 64.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 57.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 47.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 39.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 38.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 294 | 49%144 W · 150 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 38c | 32.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a8…a08abacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 58c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 27.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked No | 64c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 52c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…1d6dbacked No | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.