TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,420 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs48c15,648$7,445 inLost-$7,444.594,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals49c7,522$3,696 inWon+$3,826.154,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals56c5,142$2,905 inWon+$2,237.6210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed St. Louis Cardinals51c1,429$729 inWon+$700.2850856.9%289 W · 219 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals51c392.14$200 inWon+$192.151,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed St. Louis Cardinals69c342.77$236 inWon+$106.311,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed St. Louis Cardinals45c205.93$93 inWon+$113.262352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals66c192.95$127 inWon+$66.2111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked St. Louis Cardinals51c192.76$98 inWon+$94.4543757%249 W · 188 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed St. Louis Cardinals51c192.76$98 inWon+$94.4558358.5%341 W · 242 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked St. Louis Cardinals51c117.43$60 inWon+$57.541,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x828b…549dbacked St. Louis Cardinals51c58.19$30 inWon+$28.514055%22 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…d3dbbacked St. Louis Cardinals50c21.2$11 inWon+$10.610557.1%60 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.