MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb85958568351b40b91c8d1786c4151d16378a49ede295910192b55dd793aeb65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ab3…64afbacked Under | 46c | 65,218$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 56,744$30,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,102.18 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 46c | 55,875$25,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,631.15 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 29,642$16,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,419.24 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 54c | 22,354$12,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,282.66 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,200 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 54c | 5,500$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 4,868$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.5 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 4,077$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 3,735$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.98 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 3,721$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 2,885$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.83 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 54c | 1,667$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.67 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.38 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Under | 36c | 1,002$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 874$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.04 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 817$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 55c | 740.57$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.26 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 529.8$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 407.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 401$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 359$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e4e7backed Under | 47c | 308.74$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 55c | 301.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.69 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 46c | 276$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 77c | 202.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 23c | 182$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 46c | 152.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 54c | 150.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Under | 46c | 130.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Over | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 89.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…8668backed Under | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 46c | 84.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 79.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 46c | 69.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 54c | 66.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 37c | 60.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 54c | 59.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 54c | 56.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 56.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…89f9backed Under | 47c | 49.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 54c | 46.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 40c | 43.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 55c | 39.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 55c | 37.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…867fbacked Under | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Over | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Under | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Under | 42c | 24.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-7.5)Chicago Cubs won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.