MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68adc665352c77926b047e3e6c5ca299c02893bdb6491b0c6391283851c0b8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 7,657$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.93 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 6,877$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.79 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 6,832$3,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 5,400$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 5,306$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.89 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 2,018$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.44 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 2,018$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.44 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 1,985$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.23 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 17c | 1,879$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 1,733$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.41 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 1,357$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.83 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 765.64$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.88 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 741.09$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.49 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 738$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.3 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 627.08$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.46 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 570.01$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 537.85$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.94 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 444.22$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 218.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 188$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 160.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 155$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 137.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 111.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 74.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 72.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 64.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 55.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 52.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 45.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 43.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 43.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 40.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 37.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 34.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-7.5)Chicago Cubs won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.