Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Most Wanted (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9067e84a90b70a84571ddcb7c75fe7b0900b40cd67773d76c65c8736d3510ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Most Wantedof L1ga Team, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 30c | 1,277$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.36 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Most Wanted | 6c | 1,060$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.98 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked L1ga Team | 9c | 554.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Most Wanted | 16c | 552.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.12 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Most Wanted | 28c | 513.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Most Wanted | 50c | 336$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.7 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Most Wanted | 9c | 335$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed L1ga Team | 30c | 328.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Most Wanted | 5c | 320$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Most Wanted | 6c | 236.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed L1ga Team | 76c | 214.64$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed L1ga Team | 47c | 212.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed L1ga Team | 55c | 180.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f59…3a50backed L1ga Team | 56c | 178.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…dc73backed Most Wanted | 12c | 155.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…e1fbbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 136.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed L1ga Team | 57c | 133.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked L1ga Team | 41c | 128.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Most Wanted | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed L1ga Team | 76c | 77.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Most Wanted | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Most Wanted | 52c | 66.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cf…2584backed Most Wanted | 41c | 52.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…56b6backed Most Wanted | 61c | 50.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 39.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Most Wanted | 77c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192c…a151backed L1ga Team | 56c | 25.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Most Wanted | 51c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Most Wanted (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Most Wanted - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.