Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x907ddb9ea7a4712e465622dc9dd0ee0939635728fdf131dd5c6fbe185e21cd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 389.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 291.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 257.47$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 246.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 17c | 210.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 143.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 22c | 109.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 97.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 71.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 61.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 42c | 59.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 52.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 44c | 45.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 45.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 38c | 36.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 53c | 27.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked No | 52c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 77c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.