Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c09f9d44cdbd3daa56af31a1bc8c7fceec9dac52ed31f55d1ad87ba4bc43c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 68c | 357.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 331.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 300.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 31c | 227.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 172.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 66c | 140.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 77c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 97.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 76.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 71.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 70.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 66.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 65.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 57.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 45c | 51.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 42c | 51.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 29c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 48.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 47.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 31c | 42.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 35.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 33.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…d878backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 22.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 63c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.