Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b2510ec165c92e64dd4573ae84a3f4a0d2ca59c02beecf664f330e0f9fcf02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 67c | 870.18$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 783.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked Yes | 73c | 502.34$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 70c | 427.43$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 36c | 400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 13c | 276.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 274.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes | 38c | 238.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 204.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 189.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 69c | 136.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 21c | 95.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 50c | 85.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 77.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 65.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…3462backed Yes | 44c | 64.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 40c | 63.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 43c | 62.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 76c | 61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 51.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…5c14backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…6a3fbacked No | 74c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 79c | 31.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed No | 39c | 31.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 20.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…8a91backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…95c8backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 69c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…259fbacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 69c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 77c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.