Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb005364213396caa00a7c84e8b339d484a8de2f9f729e733c96789049c962679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 80c | 1,029$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.91 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 251.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 9c | 179$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed No | 11c | 172.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 54c | 172.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 111.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 50c | 94.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 35c | 86.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 81.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed No | 37c | 75.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 69.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 58.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 37c | 44.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 71c | 40.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 38.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 63c | 35.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 26.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 20.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.