Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bf7807446b483b997a01504135aadc701e2929de3b3db55971dce86c2d17ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 71c | 226.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…c0b0backed Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…dfd8backed Yes | 45c | 155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 34c | 145.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 139.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…af26backed No | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…7889backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…7f8dbacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…ba88backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…664cbacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…8224backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 53c | 79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…e690backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…7043backed No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 38c | 61.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…ebf2backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 45.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…87ccbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…9323backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…e8c0backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +328.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.