Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Talia Gibson vs Victoria Mboko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90eaca4c6432fc1934c7f2a30b1e0b5edc1fbd6f061cb4693fc9debb04349d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Gibson, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd178…6703backed Mboko | 77c | 15,294$11,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gibson | 22c | 10,503$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.2 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Gibson | 21c | 4,565$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.3 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Gibson | 38c | 2,223$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Mboko | 73c | 1,641$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.44 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gibson | 25c | 1,243$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Mboko | 48c | 1,047$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.94 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Gibson | 21c | 970.8$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Gibson | 27c | 770.34$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Mboko | 75c | 750$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mboko | 74c | 581.62$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Gibson | 32c | 562.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gibson | 16c | 492.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc172…47cbbacked Gibson | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Mboko | 61c | 354.46$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Mboko | 70c | 300$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Gibson | 16c | 279.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…3364backed Gibson | 49c | 246.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Gibson | 46c | 217.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Gibson | 26c | 126.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mboko | 78c | 124.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Mboko | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Gibson | 18c | 110.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gibson | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…e739backed Gibson | 27c | 99.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9f…48ebbacked Mboko | 71c | 53.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Gibson | 26c | 47.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Mboko | 46c | 46.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Mboko | 79c | 29.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Mboko | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Mboko | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mboko | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…f89dbacked Mboko | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Mboko | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Mboko | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.