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La Liga · resolved market

AD Ceuta FC vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c1,106$361 inLost-$361.364,86847%2,287 W · 2,581 L-16.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under66c1,055$701 inWon+$354.843,61342.6%1,540 W · 2,073 L+25.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under70c259.88$182 inWon+$78.0593845.3%425 W · 513 L-30.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over44c200$88 inLost-$8862744.3%278 W · 349 L-2.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over57c177$101 inLost-$100.893339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Under43c177$76 inWon+$100.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under35c83$29 inWon+$53.9510450%52 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under54c72.22$39 inWon+$33.229740.2%39 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over31c72.1$22 inLost-$2215344.4%68 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed Over23c68.75$16 inLost-$15.555119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb9…2772backed Over20c60.98$12 inLost-$12.111752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under36c60.9$22 inWon+$38.722,40948.4%1,165 W · 1,244 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over26c55$15 inLost-$14.5519258.9%113 W · 79 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Under69c52.48$36 inWon+$16.14866.7%32 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under69c52.1$36 inWon+$16.151,68544%741 W · 944 L-21.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over65c50$33 inLost-$32.539148.1%188 W · 203 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under80c31.5$25 inWon+$6.329647.3%140 W · 156 L-16.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b45…9f5bbacked Over65c30.77$20 inLost-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2119…9303backed Over65c30.77$20 inLost-$207060%42 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over44c30$13 inLost-$13.26446.9%30 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over51c30$15 inLost-$15.310554.3%57 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Under69c29.81$21 inWon+$9.249750.5%49 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…4f4fbacked Over61c24.59$15 inLost-$1510154.5%55 W · 46 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c20$11 inWon+$8.897543%419 W · 556 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over64c18.62$12 inLost-$11.9676049.6%377 W · 383 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Under70c14.88$10 inWon+$4.465343.4%23 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.