Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91368b7061794b09fcbe29993ae6f65d29c1364df07b77e9060ba168513b5d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 42c | 11,133$4,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,728.03 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 55c | 8,992$4,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.05 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 60c | 6,033$3,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 2,948$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.68 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 1,033$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.87 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 60c | 738.4$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602e…0717backed Yes | 40c | 641.78$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d9…964dbacked Yes | 65c | 641.42$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…1ce7backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 47c | 381$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 38c | 270$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 37c | 197$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…4c92backed Yes | 39c | 171$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…5409backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.