CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9139ab8fb7437ed0d54a5cd52ef8d3f1ca369c9b416a82994733389dbbb252d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof ex-RUBY, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 54c | 4,392$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.06 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ursa | 1c | 3,751$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed ex-RUBY | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.95 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ex-RUBY | 50c | 2,700$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Ursa | 49c | 2,264$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.68 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…abc5backed ex-RUBY | 41c | 2,234$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.64 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 39c | 1,416$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.61 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed ex-RUBY | 67c | 1,347$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.33 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 1,209$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.3 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ursa | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.88 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Ursa | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ursa | 32c | 786.62$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Ursa | 49c | 605$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.25 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Ursa | 71c | 580.33$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY | 67c | 532.11$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…bfd8backed Ursa | 49c | 508.74$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Ursa | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 45c | 495.96$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.68 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked ex-RUBY | 61c | 462.69$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…731cbacked ex-RUBY | 68c | 438.01$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 330 | 60.9%201 W · 129 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Ursa | 46c | 436.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed ex-RUBY | 48c | 374.49$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Ursa | 33c | 341.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 338.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Ursa | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…57c9backed ex-RUBY | 50c | 258.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Ursa | 39c | 246.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Ursa | 39c | 229.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…c09abacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 211.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked Ursa | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Ursa | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Ursa | 63c | 189.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Ursa | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked ex-RUBY | 62c | 162.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Ursa | 60c | 145.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked ex-RUBY | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 55c | 132.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Ursa | 39c | 118.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Ursa | 44c | 112.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ex-RUBY | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ex-RUBY | 61c | 99.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…21c2backed Ursa | 62c | 98.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ursa | 47c | 95.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed ex-RUBY | 55c | 84.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Ursa | 49c | 83.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 78.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed ex-RUBY | 50c | 77.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed Ursa | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Ursa | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fd1ebacked ex-RUBY | 54c | 73.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed ex-RUBY | 64c | 69.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Ursa | 63c | 55.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Ursa | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…6b2dbacked Ursa | 39c | 52.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ursa | 31c | 50.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Ursa | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed ex-RUBY | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 48.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked ex-RUBY | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed ex-RUBY | 61c | 37.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ex-RUBY | 39c | 30.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed ex-RUBY | 46c | 24.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…44a7backed Ursa | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerex-RUBY won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.