WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91458f07d85cf12b33e1bab173e46837b3a8db739d13c0b20f72c2708a556b73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wingsof Mercury, Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 47c | 5,712$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,712.89 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wings | 76c | 3,873$2,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.37 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wings | 20c | 3,760$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.23 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Wings | 76c | 2,105$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.43 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…af3bbacked Wings | 37c | 1,249$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mercury | 56c | 1,218$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.43 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed Mercury | 25c | 1,180$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wings | 18c | 1,000$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.18 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Wings | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wings | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Wings | 18c | 555$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.1 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mercury | 65c | 516.23$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.55 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Mercury | 29c | 516.03$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Wings | 29c | 465.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.39 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 41c | 456.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Wings | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Wings | 56c | 297.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mercury | 31c | 296.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc768…4532backed Mercury | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Wings | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Wings | 38c | 136$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Mercury | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mercury | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Mercury | 17c | 119.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Wings | 73c | 111.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Wings | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Wings | 18c | 78.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Wings | 17c | 77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Wings | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Mercury | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Wings | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Wings | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.