Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914b4f5cda6eb5546f33f31463a018c1440940dd502b70e1c5988e0ccf1be8ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,754 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vici Gaming | 41c | 7,234$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.66 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Team Liquid | 59c | 7,164$4,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.7 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid | 53c | 4,457$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.79 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid | 51c | 3,124$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.81 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Vici Gaming | 47c | 2,600$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Vici Gaming | 49c | 1,867$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.69 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Vici Gaming | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Vici Gaming | 49c | 508$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vici Gaming | 47c | 503.15$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Vici Gaming | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Vici Gaming | 48c | 498.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Vici Gaming | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ca23backed Vici Gaming | 49c | 208.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Vici Gaming | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Vici Gaming | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b85…f739backed Team Liquid | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 175.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Liquid | 56c | 103.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed Vici Gaming | 39c | 87.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Team Liquid | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…46adbacked Vici Gaming | 38c | 76.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 62.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Vici Gaming | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Vici Gaming | 50c | 54.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Liquid | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Team Liquid | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Vici Gaming | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…c84dbacked Team Liquid | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Vici Gaming | 41c | 39.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Team Liquid | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Vici Gaming | 49c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Vici Gaming | 51c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7f…3006backed Team Liquid | 61c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- First Blood in Game 1?Vici Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.