Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9160293f95594669b39f8a125fc5bb14ba6ef2deb2015c16c067d3a9b5b6797c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 0c | 17,261$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,501$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,401$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.89 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,596$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,403$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 1,252$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 918.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 13c | 699.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 3c | 517.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 12c | 492.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 5c | 483.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 408.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 355.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 354.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 348.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 344.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 314.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 7c | 310.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 4c | 268.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 5c | 268.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 4c | 249.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 24c | 249.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 219.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 6c | 211.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 8c | 205.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 7c | 198.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 7c | 198.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 16c | 188.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 11c | 187.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 7c | 153.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 9c | 134.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 75c | 133.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 15c | 131.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 16c | 125.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 124.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 11c | 108.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 104.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 96.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 76.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 27c | 73.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 64.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 62.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.