Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c612c866728657e2b96e7f50d102d9a4f69fb1b924b00dab76b6295dee9ad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 58c | 5,398$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 31c | 1,758$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.09 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 38c | 1,556$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,195$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 36c | 800.29$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 753.3$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 709.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 688.06$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 608.72$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 69c | 595.37$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 505.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 494.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 7c | 485.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 482$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 478.55$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.55 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 56c | 419.51$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 385.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 31c | 365.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 19c | 334.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 332.92$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 30c | 330.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 324.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 309.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 303.82$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 72c | 286.98$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 40c | 284.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 284$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 44c | 241.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 48c | 225.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 221.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 220$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 215.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 31c | 214.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 207.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 202.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 195.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 43c | 195.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 177.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 174.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 170.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 165.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…6cd3backed Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 158.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 157.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…deefbacked Yes | 48c | 156.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 144$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 144$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed Yes | 41c | 134$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 132.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 22c | 123.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 43c | 122.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 120.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 116.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 114$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 111.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 32c | 104.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 104.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 30c | 97.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 47c | 96.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 42c | 92.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 28c | 91.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 90.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…d555backed Yes | 42c | 88.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…52b6backed Yes | 42c | 85.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 84.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 41c | 78.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 39c | 76.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 76.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 73.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed Yes | 39c | 71.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 70.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 70.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.