Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d074e753f18b1f66fd94e7850eba075700ab64e5ec14e8f0184907746ac780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 39c | 4,206$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 1,034$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 958.86$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 72c | 774$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 605.5$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 566.39$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 45c | 550.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.77 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 56c | 546.51$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.3 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 503.07$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 483$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 75c | 457.87$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 457.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 423.02$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 409.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 402.64$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 56c | 391.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.24 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 40c | 303.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 17c | 298.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 22c | 297.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 72c | 276.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 274.65$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 7c | 257.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 55c | 257.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 245.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 49c | 240.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 238.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 228.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 205.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 75c | 199.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 47c | 197.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 192.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 56c | 183.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 53c | 171.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 167$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 43c | 165.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2e…4bb4backed Yes | 77c | 164.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 163.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 162.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 161.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 76c | 157.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 11c | 152.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 150.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 144.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 23c | 142.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 139.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 14c | 139.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 61c | 139.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 47c | 137.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 71c | 135.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 36c | 134.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 131.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 130.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 129.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 42c | 122.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 41c | 122.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 116.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 115.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 50c | 112.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 110.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 39c | 107.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…deefbacked No | 53c | 103.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 28c | 103.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 49c | 102.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 101.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…c795backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 99.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 57c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 87.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 82.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 39c | 80.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 79.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 34c | 78.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 39c | 77.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 50c | 77.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 49c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 75.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 40c | 74.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 72.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…b660backed Yes | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 70.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…047cbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 76c | 68.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 65.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 46c | 65.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.