NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91763b8e0b92e2e0b4dd758d3f82efed23bb4594283f04fdc8ac0bd1336f3733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 62c | 1,611$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.79 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 921$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 60c | 792$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.56 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Under | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 40c | 528.27$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 37c | 514.54$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 61c | 394.66$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 41c | 368$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 341.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 63c | 326.47$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 57c | 311.4$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 36c | 110.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 93.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 57c | 81.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 42c | 77.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 58c | 64.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 56.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 21c | 48.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 46.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 45.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…ff31backed Over | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…966cbacked Over | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 67c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Over | 62c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Over | 62c | 26.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Over | 62c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ac80backed Under | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Rangers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.