Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917bcce2234c572af014be5af193de539dc908e5b032863628360ef1ae34c181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 388.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 312.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 77c | 299.21$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 236.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 217.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 190.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 10c | 184.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 176.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 149.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 135.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 122.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 24c | 117.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 24c | 74.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 26c | 58.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 51.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 40.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 34.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 34.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 79c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 78c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 77c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 78c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked No | 79c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.