Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b06a92d1c89446ecd68b85e7adaf94afa065f0bd77ebbf7df88c68933efac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc279…f40cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 672.46$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 29c | 635.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…f025backed Yes | 28c | 601.91$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 548.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 69c | 327.71$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 38c | 319.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 225.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 30c | 199.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 7c | 174.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 172.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 128.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 121.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 120.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 105.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 95.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 90.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 65c | 86.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 45c | 86.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 77.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 75.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 36c | 71.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 66.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 32c | 60.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 34c | 55.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 26c | 53.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 49.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 49.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 48.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 40.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 39.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 32c | 39.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 37.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 34.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 36c | 31.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 30.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 78c | 30.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…dbadbacked No | 80c | 28.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 26.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 68c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 57c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 23.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 22.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 22.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d58…db51backed No | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.