Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c6db019ebcc79fd9fc50c276be47e04ceb8acd324861d4c74dd2e12bd3ab91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,347$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 713.4$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 330.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 299.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 277.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 19c | 251.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 80c | 238.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 197.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 179.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 17c | 174.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 64c | 153.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 130$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 48c | 129.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 114.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 114$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 55c | 113.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 12c | 105.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.92 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 100.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 91.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 36c | 90.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 84.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 22c | 71.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 60c | 67.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 65.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 63.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 57.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 27c | 53.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 80c | 52.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 47.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 42.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…5c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 77c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.