Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ba65830038fa9b03c5784d23a4e4e5060bfb00719cf9ebcd631785ffa22b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 5,228$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 22c | 457.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.12 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 20c | 298.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.11 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 219.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 68c | 218.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 79c | 197.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 24c | 122.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 23c | 104.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 96.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 19c | 95.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 80c | 61.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 75c | 59.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 51.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 78c | 30.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 26.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 79c | 19.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 76c | 15.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.